* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 84 83 82 79 76 75 76 77 80 85 86 87 88 85 85 V (KT) LAND 90 86 84 83 82 79 76 75 76 77 80 85 86 87 88 85 85 V (KT) LGEM 90 86 83 81 80 80 82 78 74 70 68 69 73 76 79 81 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 20 8 10 13 23 20 26 27 19 17 14 16 19 22 30 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 5 5 0 9 2 2 0 4 -1 4 2 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 24 37 40 343 343 353 358 357 354 348 315 281 273 256 247 232 240 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 161 161 160 156 153 154 163 164 164 160 159 162 146 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 141 138 137 137 136 134 129 134 145 145 146 141 136 143 128 115 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 58 60 61 57 53 50 52 55 60 60 62 64 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 22 24 26 27 29 29 28 30 31 33 36 37 41 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -50 -47 -56 -52 -36 -28 -17 -12 0 -16 -15 -13 16 24 40 51 200 MB DIV -14 -5 -22 -27 -3 -42 -30 -5 0 -11 2 43 62 63 78 70 63 700-850 TADV 13 10 7 10 9 4 3 0 -1 -2 -7 0 5 9 19 14 11 LAND (KM) 606 676 747 784 822 829 777 720 660 617 649 678 570 363 384 494 424 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.8 26.4 26.7 27.0 26.8 26.0 25.2 24.9 25.1 25.6 26.3 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.1 69.2 69.3 69.0 68.6 67.4 66.6 66.2 66.8 68.5 70.3 72.3 74.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 5 5 5 3 5 8 9 10 9 6 11 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 45 45 45 51 45 40 43 52 40 43 52 74 79 26 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -2. 1. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 8. 7. 9. 12. 12. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -15. -14. -12. -10. -5. -4. -3. -2. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.1 69.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.48 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 548.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 9.4% 7.0% 5.8% 5.5% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.2% 3.1% 2.4% 2.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/11/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/11/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 8( 26) 7( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 4( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 84 83 82 79 76 75 76 77 80 85 86 87 88 85 85 18HR AGO 90 89 87 86 85 82 79 78 79 80 83 88 89 90 91 88 88 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 84 81 78 77 78 79 82 87 88 89 90 87 87 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 76 73 72 73 74 77 82 83 84 85 82 82 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 65 64 65 66 69 74 75 76 77 74 74 IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 67 64 63 64 65 68 73 74 75 76 73 73 IN 12HR 90 86 84 75 69 65 62 61 62 63 66 71 72 73 74 71 71