* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 94 88 86 78 74 74 75 76 80 85 89 93 93 90 86 V (KT) LAND 105 100 94 88 86 78 74 74 75 76 80 85 89 93 93 90 86 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 95 92 88 83 81 81 81 81 79 80 84 90 92 90 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 28 29 25 18 17 17 17 11 20 15 13 12 15 19 30 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 -3 3 7 6 4 9 7 8 4 1 0 1 3 9 1 SHEAR DIR 7 5 18 26 14 360 8 351 359 346 353 325 318 280 266 255 246 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.4 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 164 163 162 160 160 160 161 161 161 160 160 164 158 158 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 149 146 141 133 134 135 137 137 140 139 143 147 139 136 123 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.1 -50.6 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 50 54 54 55 56 59 62 60 61 59 60 60 64 64 67 67 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 19 20 19 21 25 26 27 27 28 31 34 38 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -48 -70 -74 -66 -67 -49 -41 -14 0 18 6 2 -9 18 19 70 200 MB DIV -35 -40 -53 -30 -31 -45 -14 -22 -18 20 29 16 48 52 112 90 94 700-850 TADV 14 17 11 9 13 11 8 6 2 4 1 -6 -4 6 22 30 18 LAND (KM) 422 476 523 589 662 738 745 703 649 572 547 557 585 578 402 511 477 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.2 24.1 24.9 25.6 26.3 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.7 24.6 24.8 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.3 68.1 68.6 69.0 69.1 68.6 68.1 68.1 68.6 69.4 70.6 71.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 6 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 9 10 9 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 65 52 55 53 48 47 50 52 53 54 50 45 44 72 65 53 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. -0. -6. -13. -18. -23. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -14. -17. -18. -17. -13. -9. -6. -3. -0. 2. 6. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -19. -27. -31. -30. -30. -29. -25. -20. -16. -12. -12. -15. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 22.3 66.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 781.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/10/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 16( 39) 10( 45) 6( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 2( 5) 8( 13) 4( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 100 94 88 86 78 74 74 75 76 80 85 89 93 93 90 86 18HR AGO 105 104 98 92 90 82 78 78 79 80 84 89 93 97 97 94 90 12HR AGO 105 102 101 95 93 85 81 81 82 83 87 92 96 100 100 97 93 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 85 81 81 82 83 87 92 96 100 100 97 93 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 78 74 74 75 76 80 85 89 93 93 90 86 IN 6HR 105 100 91 85 82 76 72 72 73 74 78 83 87 91 91 88 84 IN 12HR 105 100 94 85 79 75 71 71 72 73 77 82 86 90 90 87 83