* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 106 100 95 87 80 75 77 77 83 90 95 96 96 94 89 V (KT) LAND 115 111 106 100 95 87 80 75 77 77 83 90 95 96 96 94 89 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 107 103 99 93 89 85 82 81 82 86 91 95 98 96 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 25 27 26 19 25 17 16 19 16 9 15 10 13 24 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 -1 0 4 5 4 3 6 5 3 0 -1 0 11 10 6 SHEAR DIR 356 4 7 26 33 8 4 356 336 347 352 352 314 260 256 260 261 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 161 162 163 161 161 159 157 159 162 163 160 164 157 162 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 149 148 145 137 136 134 133 135 141 144 143 147 136 141 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -49.5 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 55 55 60 60 60 60 61 57 60 61 64 58 57 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 21 20 20 20 21 21 25 25 28 31 33 34 37 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -60 -59 -72 -81 -67 -70 -52 -41 -26 -22 -6 -17 -7 -7 31 85 200 MB DIV -14 -26 -30 -40 -37 -24 -25 -22 -13 -10 18 36 36 92 107 72 77 700-850 TADV 7 15 13 9 7 10 11 2 3 1 1 0 -6 9 19 21 16 LAND (KM) 309 406 470 510 572 694 745 754 732 680 606 536 489 663 561 715 646 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.7 25.9 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 66.2 67.2 67.9 68.6 69.1 68.6 67.8 67.2 67.0 67.8 69.4 71.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 10 8 4 3 3 3 3 6 7 9 11 7 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 65 52 54 54 48 50 52 47 45 54 52 54 49 49 33 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -10. -19. -26. -32. -36. -38. -40. -43. -45. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -14. -18. -21. -21. -17. -12. -8. -4. -0. 3. 8. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -0. -0. 3. 6. 8. 8. 10. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -20. -28. -35. -40. -38. -38. -32. -25. -20. -19. -19. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 21.2 65.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.22 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 861.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/10/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/10/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 27( 50) 17( 58) 10( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 3( 11) 2( 13) 12( 23) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 111 106 100 95 87 80 75 77 77 83 90 95 96 96 94 89 18HR AGO 115 114 109 103 98 90 83 78 80 80 86 93 98 99 99 97 92 12HR AGO 115 112 111 105 100 92 85 80 82 82 88 95 100 101 101 99 94 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 100 92 85 80 82 82 88 95 100 101 101 99 94 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 81 76 78 78 84 91 96 97 97 95 90 IN 6HR 115 111 102 96 93 90 83 78 80 80 86 93 98 99 99 97 92 IN 12HR 115 111 106 97 91 87 80 75 77 77 83 90 95 96 96 94 89