* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 115 113 109 92 69 49 38 29 21 21 22 25 26 27 24 V (KT) LAND 115 116 115 113 109 79 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 117 118 117 111 79 43 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 21 24 28 41 43 30 19 15 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 3 2 7 0 -3 1 -2 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 249 236 229 226 208 208 194 213 238 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.1 28.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 172 172 173 155 143 130 128 128 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 158 162 163 160 137 123 109 104 103 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -48.9 -48.4 -48.7 -49.4 -50.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 60 58 53 44 44 46 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 48 48 49 49 43 32 22 18 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 131 135 142 146 130 163 163 143 76 51 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 89 60 36 94 104 23 38 8 13 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 26 34 39 64 73 21 0 1 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 59 90 76 38 16 -34 -243 -373 -512 -609 -708 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.6 25.4 26.6 27.8 30.4 32.5 34.1 35.3 36.2 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.7 82.1 82.6 83.0 84.3 86.0 87.9 88.8 88.6 88.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 13 14 12 9 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 52 54 92 83 10 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 1. -8. -19. -29. -38. -45. -48. -51. -54. -57. -58. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -11. -15. -24. -30. -27. -23. -16. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. -3. -16. -30. -39. -46. -52. -53. -52. -50. -49. -46. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -6. -23. -46. -66. -77. -86. -94. -94. -93. -90. -89. -88. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.7 81.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.29 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 13.8% 9.5% 6.5% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.2% 0.1% 1.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 5.0% 3.7% 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/10/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 28( 66) 0( 66) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 4( 24) 0( 24) 0( 24) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 115 113 109 79 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 115 114 113 111 107 77 42 30 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 105 75 40 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 71 36 24 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 66 31 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 75 40 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 IN 12HR 115 116 115 106 100 96 61 49 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44