* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 118 113 109 104 93 85 78 73 76 80 81 82 82 84 87 87 V (KT) LAND 125 118 113 109 104 93 85 78 73 76 80 81 82 82 84 87 87 V (KT) LGEM 125 117 112 107 103 99 94 88 83 80 77 75 74 77 82 90 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 17 18 21 27 24 20 21 21 15 17 15 4 13 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 0 0 2 -1 9 7 8 9 10 5 4 3 1 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 256 250 283 318 354 14 34 2 2 5 13 12 16 28 7 298 300 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 146 148 149 151 157 158 162 161 159 159 157 159 162 157 163 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 139 141 142 142 144 141 140 137 134 134 131 137 145 134 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -50.9 -51.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -49.8 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -49.3 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 11 10 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 54 60 55 55 53 55 57 62 66 68 67 65 57 63 56 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 22 22 21 23 23 23 27 29 29 31 31 34 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR -12 1 -5 -25 -45 -55 -69 -65 -55 -36 -32 -8 -21 0 19 -2 -3 200 MB DIV 33 37 -26 -1 -5 -46 -38 -4 -37 -20 25 17 20 50 36 35 48 700-850 TADV 16 7 4 4 6 9 9 16 14 7 15 11 2 -4 -10 0 5 LAND (KM) 530 423 335 282 285 433 504 617 704 775 804 832 859 639 494 744 845 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.8 22.4 23.8 25.1 25.9 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.7 62.7 63.7 64.8 66.6 67.8 68.5 68.5 67.8 67.2 66.5 65.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 10 8 5 4 3 3 3 6 9 3 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 49 54 56 51 46 57 53 53 48 41 37 38 39 47 56 45 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -15. -25. -34. -42. -47. -51. -54. -57. -59. -60. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -22. -18. -14. -9. -4. -0. 4. 9. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -4. 0. 2. 1. 3. 2. 5. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -21. -32. -40. -47. -52. -49. -45. -44. -43. -43. -41. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.9 60.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 865.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 30( 57) 26( 68) 14( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 38 26( 54) 5( 56) 1( 57) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 118 113 109 104 93 85 78 73 76 80 81 82 82 84 87 87 18HR AGO 125 124 119 115 110 99 91 84 79 82 86 87 88 88 90 93 93 12HR AGO 125 122 121 117 112 101 93 86 81 84 88 89 90 90 92 95 95 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 110 99 91 84 79 82 86 87 88 88 90 93 93 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 95 87 80 75 78 82 83 84 84 86 89 89 IN 6HR 125 118 109 103 100 93 85 78 73 76 80 81 82 82 84 87 87 IN 12HR 125 118 113 104 98 94 86 79 74 77 81 82 83 83 85 88 88