* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 143 145 145 146 143 137 127 110 87 68 55 45 44 42 40 34 V (KT) LAND 140 143 145 145 146 143 104 63 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 140 144 146 147 146 144 107 64 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 6 9 14 26 27 41 42 30 25 32 33 40 38 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 0 5 4 5 1 -8 0 4 4 3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 342 319 311 270 244 232 221 210 202 203 210 227 230 236 234 245 250 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.4 30.4 29.9 29.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 171 170 170 171 172 169 169 150 145 142 138 143 141 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 165 163 158 155 159 161 150 147 125 117 112 108 114 112 111 110 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.1 -49.5 -48.3 -48.6 -48.6 -49.0 -49.8 -50.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 12 9 5 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 4 0 6 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 62 61 62 64 61 54 47 41 39 40 40 38 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 40 40 45 49 51 49 43 33 23 16 10 9 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 77 84 91 100 123 134 139 151 142 185 150 96 67 19 -6 -37 -41 200 MB DIV 31 21 41 87 87 86 39 106 87 59 33 5 -6 3 -21 -4 -25 700-850 TADV 2 6 9 9 13 24 34 48 46 20 -1 7 5 11 -4 -1 1 LAND (KM) 49 22 33 31 56 40 -19 -17 -170 -385 -489 -517 -553 -569 -525 -442 -381 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.4 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.9 26.9 29.3 31.6 33.7 34.9 35.3 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.2 78.2 79.1 79.8 80.5 81.4 82.0 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.3 86.9 87.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 9 11 13 12 9 5 3 2 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 53 61 66 63 63 50 54 36 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -14. -26. -36. -47. -56. -62. -69. -75. -79. -82. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -5. -2. 1. 5. 8. 7. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 13. 12. 4. -11. -25. -36. -44. -45. -45. -43. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 3. -3. -13. -30. -53. -72. -85. -95. -96. -98.-100.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 22.1 77.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 694.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.3% 18.9% 15.5% 10.4% 5.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 17.0% 9.0% 8.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 9.3% 8.0% 4.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/09/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/09/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 66( 84) 71( 95) 64( 98) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 100 100(100) 99(100) 92(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 143 145 145 146 143 104 63 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 140 139 141 141 142 139 100 59 36 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 140 137 136 136 137 134 95 54 31 22 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 131 128 89 48 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 140 131 125 122 121 118 79 38 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 140 143 134 128 125 123 84 43 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 140 143 145 136 130 126 87 46 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS