* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 83 81 78 75 71 70 71 70 69 69 71 72 72 74 75 V (KT) LAND 80 82 83 66 51 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 80 66 50 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 4 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 349 325 1 43 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 150 144 138 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 134 130 125 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 10 8 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 70 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 9 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -10 -4 0 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 33 39 39 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 2 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 151 93 36 -32 -100 -245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 20.8 20.5 20.1 19.7 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.1 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 41 28 18 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.1 95.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.88 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.24 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.3% 35.0% 29.4% 23.5% 16.7% 14.3% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 20.7% 49.1% 42.9% 37.4% 22.9% 28.6% 22.7% 12.9% Bayesian: 13.2% 37.4% 19.4% 16.5% 6.8% 25.1% 4.1% 16.5% Consensus: 19.1% 40.5% 30.6% 25.8% 15.4% 22.7% 13.0% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 9( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 4( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 83 66 51 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 80 79 80 63 48 32 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 80 77 76 59 44 28 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 55 39 33 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 80 82 83 74 68 64 58 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56