* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 131 125 118 112 105 99 91 82 77 74 74 77 81 81 78 75 V (KT) LAND 130 131 125 118 112 105 99 91 82 77 74 74 77 81 81 78 75 V (KT) LGEM 130 132 128 121 112 102 97 95 90 82 77 75 72 72 69 68 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 18 17 9 23 32 28 22 19 18 11 20 18 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 4 6 7 1 7 8 12 3 5 6 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 262 271 269 255 251 299 2 14 28 9 18 17 33 28 33 48 31 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 29.1 28.5 28.3 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 154 144 142 154 156 162 165 164 161 161 164 163 155 159 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 144 150 139 135 147 147 150 149 144 137 136 143 146 130 134 130 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -51.3 -51.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 13 12 13 13 14 12 12 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 57 56 54 53 52 57 62 64 65 60 62 61 60 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 19 19 20 19 19 18 19 19 20 20 21 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 3 2 0 5 4 2 -35 -58 -65 -60 -57 -38 -46 -41 -46 -12 -15 200 MB DIV 42 61 56 38 30 0 -13 -27 -27 -25 1 24 27 23 13 -8 -4 700-850 TADV 4 1 -9 1 6 6 16 7 8 16 21 18 8 19 8 7 2 LAND (KM) 771 727 708 624 500 298 270 440 531 658 775 867 960 962 888 885 906 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.8 19.1 20.7 22.5 24.1 25.5 26.6 27.4 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.6 58.8 59.9 61.0 63.0 64.9 66.7 67.9 68.6 68.8 68.5 68.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 4 9 11 2 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 62 60 65 51 46 61 49 57 59 50 46 39 36 44 48 43 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -16. -26. -35. -42. -48. -52. -55. -58. -61. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -14. -17. -17. -16. -16. -14. -10. -4. -0. 4. 10. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -5. -12. -18. -25. -31. -39. -48. -53. -56. -56. -53. -49. -49. -52. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.1 56.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 826.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 7.3% 4.2% 2.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 17.1% 6.7% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 4.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 38( 65) 30( 75) 27( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 27( 39) 38( 62) 22( 71) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 131 125 118 112 105 99 91 82 77 74 74 77 81 81 78 75 18HR AGO 130 129 123 116 110 103 97 89 80 75 72 72 75 79 79 76 73 12HR AGO 130 127 126 119 113 106 100 92 83 78 75 75 78 82 82 79 76 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 114 107 101 93 84 79 76 76 79 83 83 80 77 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 104 98 90 81 76 73 73 76 80 80 77 74 IN 6HR 130 131 122 116 113 109 103 95 86 81 78 78 81 85 85 82 79 IN 12HR 130 131 125 116 110 106 100 92 83 78 75 75 78 82 82 79 76