* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 86 85 82 79 75 73 73 72 71 71 71 72 72 74 76 V (KT) LAND 80 84 86 85 70 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 84 82 69 42 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 4 1 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 320 349 330 357 67 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 153 145 138 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 139 138 131 124 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 71 71 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 13 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 -9 -6 2 15 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 34 45 45 40 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 2 1 2 1 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 195 152 109 44 -21 -142 -243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.7 20.3 19.6 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.6 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.9 98.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 56 47 32 19 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.4 95.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.91 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.2% 44.7% 36.6% 27.1% 20.3% 21.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 23.6% 58.0% 52.1% 45.4% 26.7% 30.1% 21.5% 16.8% Bayesian: 12.1% 38.6% 22.4% 19.8% 9.4% 26.2% 4.8% 17.2% Consensus: 21.0% 47.1% 37.0% 30.8% 18.8% 25.8% 13.1% 11.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 0( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 23( 25) 0( 25) 0( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 86 85 70 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 80 79 81 80 65 37 27 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 60 32 22 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 55 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 53 43 39 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 IN 12HR 80 84 86 77 71 67 57 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52