* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 103 100 96 91 88 83 78 75 74 74 80 83 84 83 82 V (KT) LAND 105 105 103 100 96 91 88 83 78 75 74 74 80 83 84 83 82 V (KT) LGEM 105 105 103 100 97 90 86 82 79 74 70 67 66 66 66 67 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 17 19 18 13 17 25 30 24 29 23 18 10 14 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 6 2 10 3 7 4 8 0 5 7 12 5 8 4 SHEAR DIR 265 272 270 266 265 258 326 5 35 22 5 21 33 39 29 34 346 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 29.0 28.6 28.4 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 145 152 146 143 154 161 162 165 162 161 162 163 156 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 147 140 147 140 135 146 151 148 145 138 136 136 142 133 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -52.8 -52.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -50.6 -50.0 -50.3 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 10 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 55 57 56 54 52 53 57 62 64 62 60 55 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 17 19 19 19 17 17 17 18 22 23 24 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 0 0 0 0 -19 -56 -63 -77 -66 -40 -46 -28 -32 -21 -15 200 MB DIV 47 46 60 55 47 36 -12 -6 -36 -24 -30 8 28 30 10 13 -3 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 -4 5 0 11 13 9 13 20 19 16 20 8 0 -9 LAND (KM) 886 811 758 744 663 454 329 376 534 631 748 831 914 971 872 792 758 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.6 20.2 21.8 23.5 25.0 26.2 26.9 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.0 57.3 58.4 59.5 61.4 63.3 65.2 66.7 67.7 68.0 67.7 67.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 10 7 5 4 5 9 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 58 62 59 64 54 49 52 57 46 56 44 37 32 37 47 42 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -6. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. -30. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -11. -10. -10. -9. -6. -4. -1. 3. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -2. -0. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -22. -27. -30. -31. -31. -25. -22. -21. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.9 54.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.43 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 578.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.12 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.3% 9.3% 6.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 5.9% 3.0% 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.7% 7.9% 2.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 9.0% 4.8% 3.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 25( 45) 19( 56) 12( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 12( 30) 8( 36) 13( 44) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 103 100 96 91 88 83 78 75 74 74 80 83 84 83 82 18HR AGO 105 104 102 99 95 90 87 82 77 74 73 73 79 82 83 82 81 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 94 89 86 81 76 73 72 72 78 81 82 81 80 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 91 86 83 78 73 70 69 69 75 78 79 78 77 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 81 78 73 68 65 64 64 70 73 74 73 72 IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 83 80 75 70 67 66 66 72 75 76 75 74 IN 12HR 105 105 103 94 88 84 81 76 71 68 67 67 73 76 77 76 75