* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 108 105 102 96 93 93 89 84 84 86 85 90 96 95 94 V (KT) LAND 105 108 108 105 102 96 93 93 89 84 84 86 85 90 96 95 94 V (KT) LGEM 105 111 113 110 107 101 95 92 90 86 81 78 76 75 78 81 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 13 15 14 17 10 16 28 26 25 25 13 15 19 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 5 6 3 5 6 0 6 3 3 3 7 6 10 5 SHEAR DIR 252 271 268 278 273 266 287 358 21 25 2 1 351 3 6 34 20 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 153 151 157 154 154 163 164 165 164 161 161 163 162 163 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 154 151 148 153 148 147 154 152 148 142 137 134 143 141 144 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -52.4 -52.4 -51.5 -51.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 58 54 57 55 53 50 50 57 60 63 59 50 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 19 20 19 21 20 19 21 24 23 26 30 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 7 3 3 4 2 0 0 -28 -52 -73 -69 -59 -37 -26 -6 15 25 200 MB DIV 47 56 59 79 69 18 1 5 -13 -44 -29 5 17 7 -26 -3 13 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -8 3 7 4 7 9 13 12 7 8 4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 992 883 793 740 711 521 331 309 467 592 714 819 934 915 834 664 606 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.8 19.2 20.9 22.7 24.4 25.8 26.7 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.7 56.2 57.4 58.7 60.8 62.7 64.5 66.1 67.2 67.7 67.4 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 12 12 11 12 12 11 8 6 5 3 8 6 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 50 56 62 60 66 56 54 51 55 52 48 39 32 36 50 44 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -8. -5. -5. -5. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -4. -0. -2. 1. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 0. -3. -9. -12. -12. -16. -21. -21. -19. -20. -15. -9. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.5 53.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 583.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.32 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 18.2% 13.0% 8.3% 7.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 10.0% 4.8% 2.4% 1.1% 2.4% 2.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 22.7% 19.2% 7.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 15.5% 15.8% 8.3% 3.8% 2.9% 4.1% 0.9% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/08/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 28( 47) 24( 60) 19( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 46 40( 68) 54( 85) 39( 91) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 108 108 105 102 96 93 93 89 84 84 86 85 90 96 95 94 18HR AGO 105 104 104 101 98 92 89 89 85 80 80 82 81 86 92 91 90 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 95 89 86 86 82 77 77 79 78 83 89 88 87 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 86 83 83 79 74 74 76 75 80 86 85 84 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 80 77 77 73 68 68 70 69 74 80 79 78 IN 6HR 105 108 99 93 90 87 84 84 80 75 75 77 76 81 87 86 85 IN 12HR 105 108 108 99 93 89 86 86 82 77 77 79 78 83 89 88 87