* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 149 151 152 152 147 142 137 133 125 104 83 68 63 53 50 42 V (KT) LAND 150 149 151 152 152 147 142 121 66 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 150 148 148 147 146 144 141 135 65 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 6 4 9 10 20 28 32 39 38 32 27 35 31 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 1 0 2 2 2 1 4 0 -11 3 7 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 280 291 290 339 341 286 254 247 223 199 202 221 238 238 237 242 231 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.0 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 169 168 171 171 170 170 168 171 146 145 137 140 140 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 159 157 158 160 152 152 151 151 126 123 111 109 110 114 120 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -49.6 -49.2 -48.9 -48.3 -48.2 -48.9 -49.1 -49.7 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.1 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 12 12 9 5 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 700-500 MB RH 54 55 56 58 60 63 62 61 61 58 55 55 47 49 51 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 37 39 41 42 44 48 52 51 41 29 21 17 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 57 59 59 72 90 100 131 134 141 151 141 144 69 69 33 23 21 200 MB DIV 32 31 20 28 20 45 80 97 81 127 95 8 28 7 0 29 20 700-850 TADV -1 -2 4 1 4 10 15 31 38 58 73 11 -1 13 15 5 -5 LAND (KM) 145 172 143 122 109 97 141 -10 -67 -42 -152 -357 -607 -686 -590 -556 -472 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 23.1 24.1 25.5 27.6 30.1 32.6 34.8 37.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.8 73.0 74.3 75.5 76.6 78.4 79.7 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.6 83.6 84.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 10 12 13 12 12 8 3 3 4 8 HEAT CONTENT 61 67 69 56 55 71 61 48 34 36 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -1. -2. -8. -20. -34. -46. -56. -66. -72. -78. -85. -90. -93. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 14. 13. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 14. 19. 18. 4. -13. -26. -30. -36. -36. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -8. -13. -17. -25. -46. -67. -82. -87. -97.-100.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 21.1 71.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 922.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 4.0% 2.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/08/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 78 78( 95) 78( 99) 74(100) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 100 100(100) 100(100) 100(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 149 151 152 152 147 142 121 66 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 150 149 151 152 152 147 142 121 66 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 150 147 146 147 147 142 137 116 61 37 27 23 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 140 135 130 109 54 30 20 16 15 15 15 15 15 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 126 121 100 45 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 150 149 140 134 131 127 122 101 46 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 150 149 151 142 136 132 127 106 51 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS