* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 149 149 147 149 147 143 138 135 129 120 94 75 66 56 50 43 V (KT) LAND 150 149 149 147 149 147 143 138 110 110 100 52 35 29 28 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 150 146 143 142 142 144 144 140 109 102 78 44 32 28 28 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 9 6 6 11 22 23 28 37 33 38 21 26 29 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 1 -2 -3 -1 6 4 0 8 0 -1 -5 2 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 292 267 257 280 338 298 279 263 240 220 199 217 229 242 233 236 231 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.3 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 168 168 171 170 171 166 157 145 140 138 139 138 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 159 158 158 156 162 158 152 147 139 126 120 116 111 107 107 112 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -49.4 -49.5 -48.9 -48.6 -48.5 -48.9 -49.7 -52.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 10 7 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 700-500 MB RH 55 51 53 53 56 60 63 66 67 60 58 55 56 51 49 46 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 36 34 39 40 43 46 50 52 49 34 24 18 12 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 62 52 48 54 73 97 114 133 138 137 167 152 104 95 64 99 91 200 MB DIV 57 23 25 21 34 35 90 102 90 131 132 22 26 5 23 9 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 3 -5 3 19 34 38 56 54 56 10 3 12 8 20 LAND (KM) 106 150 189 162 145 115 153 78 -15 38 27 -171 -432 -709 -627 -685 -562 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.9 23.8 25.1 26.8 29.1 31.4 33.9 36.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.7 73.0 74.2 75.4 77.4 78.8 79.6 80.2 80.5 81.0 81.7 82.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 9 7 8 10 12 12 12 12 6 2 1 6 HEAT CONTENT 71 62 68 70 57 70 75 59 44 33 26 3 2 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -2. -8. -19. -33. -45. -56. -66. -72. -79. -85. -91. -94. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 12. 15. 15. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 16. -6. -21. -28. -34. -37. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -21. -30. -56. -75. -84. -94.-100.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 20.7 70.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 990.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 6.4% 4.5% 3.8% 3.6% 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 2.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 78 78( 95) 78( 99) 74(100) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 99 99(100) 100(100) 100(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 149 149 147 149 147 143 138 110 110 100 52 35 29 28 28 27 18HR AGO 150 149 149 147 149 147 143 138 110 110 100 52 35 29 28 28 27 12HR AGO 150 147 146 144 146 144 140 135 107 107 97 49 32 26 25 25 24 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 142 140 136 131 103 103 93 45 28 22 21 21 20 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 129 125 120 92 92 82 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 150 149 140 134 131 128 124 119 91 91 81 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 150 149 149 140 134 130 126 121 93 93 83 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS