* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 75 76 76 68 67 67 67 66 66 66 66 66 67 68 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 75 76 76 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 72 73 73 71 47 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 8 10 5 2 3 10 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 217 213 222 31 16 51 96 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 159 158 155 142 141 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 140 141 141 139 127 127 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 10 7 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 68 69 71 71 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 13 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 4 0 0 -1 24 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 42 49 45 36 43 40 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 6 6 1 0 -3 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 269 254 240 197 154 42 -86 -190 -278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.6 20.1 19.7 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.7 94.8 95.1 95.5 96.5 97.6 98.5 99.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 4 5 6 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 57 57 56 51 32 17 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.6 94.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.77 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 36.9% 28.5% 23.0% 17.7% 21.3% 15.0% 14.4% Logistic: 16.7% 47.6% 34.6% 24.0% 17.1% 29.9% 33.9% 21.5% Bayesian: 4.2% 18.2% 4.7% 2.9% 0.7% 6.7% 4.2% 10.1% Consensus: 13.1% 34.3% 22.6% 16.6% 11.8% 19.3% 17.7% 15.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 5( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 73 75 76 76 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 70 72 73 73 45 31 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 69 69 41 27 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 61 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT