* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 88 89 89 88 85 83 81 76 71 67 68 71 73 77 78 V (KT) LAND 80 84 88 89 89 88 85 83 81 76 71 67 68 71 73 77 78 V (KT) LGEM 80 85 89 91 92 91 88 84 79 74 68 64 62 63 65 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 9 13 18 14 19 20 23 29 30 26 23 24 25 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 1 8 5 11 6 7 4 8 6 9 8 11 8 SHEAR DIR 252 251 223 248 275 291 268 279 320 3 26 23 7 28 17 22 28 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.2 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 147 152 151 155 151 156 163 164 168 165 164 165 164 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 152 147 150 147 150 144 147 152 151 153 143 144 148 146 135 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -52.8 -52.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 -49.9 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 61 61 59 60 57 58 52 55 58 61 60 60 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 17 17 16 17 17 18 19 18 16 14 14 16 19 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 -3 6 5 4 2 -3 -17 -54 -65 -73 -55 -47 -62 -23 5 200 MB DIV 23 45 46 43 56 62 36 23 7 9 -34 -19 -16 44 49 44 43 700-850 TADV 4 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 2 11 13 18 15 22 36 26 38 27 16 LAND (KM) 1160 1124 1104 1026 911 767 693 487 347 374 525 638 793 964 1087 1007 954 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.5 17.5 18.7 20.1 21.7 23.3 25.1 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.8 51.4 52.9 54.4 57.0 59.2 61.1 63.0 64.9 66.5 67.8 69.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 8 10 13 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 48 51 53 60 63 55 46 57 47 57 46 35 43 50 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -1. -0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -9. -6. -4. 0. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -4. -9. -13. -12. -9. -7. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.6 48.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.58 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 412.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.8% 28.1% 21.0% 17.4% 9.5% 11.5% 12.2% 8.7% Logistic: 14.9% 27.9% 19.8% 17.6% 9.6% 13.5% 7.1% 4.1% Bayesian: 32.0% 61.8% 39.1% 9.6% 6.1% 15.0% 2.0% 0.2% Consensus: 22.6% 39.3% 26.6% 14.9% 8.4% 13.3% 7.1% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 11( 17) 11( 26) 11( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 17( 19) 10( 27) 6( 31) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 88 89 89 88 85 83 81 76 71 67 68 71 73 77 78 18HR AGO 80 79 83 84 84 83 80 78 76 71 66 62 63 66 68 72 73 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 77 76 73 71 69 64 59 55 56 59 61 65 66 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 69 66 64 62 57 52 48 49 52 54 58 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 65 62 60 58 53 48 44 45 48 50 54 55 IN 12HR 80 84 88 79 73 69 66 64 62 57 52 48 49 52 54 58 59