* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 85 92 95 101 97 86 76 70 63 59 57 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 70 78 85 92 95 101 97 62 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 80 87 92 95 97 95 61 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 7 10 5 5 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 228 241 211 204 25 41 33 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 161 164 163 156 142 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 140 143 145 140 128 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 8 9 6 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 69 69 71 71 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 15 16 15 17 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 16 12 2 1 -10 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 46 28 38 32 32 45 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 4 10 3 3 -2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 238 248 254 241 228 163 50 -79 -210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.6 19.9 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.8 95.4 96.4 97.4 98.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 2 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 55 54 52 49 45 31 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. -2. -11. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 25. 31. 27. 16. 6. -0. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.7 94.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 17.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.63 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 4.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 5.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.0% 59.3% 46.9% 42.6% 30.3% 40.7% 29.7% 16.9% Logistic: 31.5% 78.9% 72.4% 67.4% 46.5% 62.9% 54.0% 50.7% Bayesian: 11.7% 28.7% 9.5% 10.3% 3.6% 6.6% 2.1% 3.4% Consensus: 28.7% 55.6% 42.9% 40.1% 26.8% 36.7% 28.6% 23.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/07/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 10( 14) 17( 28) 23( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 8( 10) 10( 19) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 78 85 92 95 101 97 62 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 76 83 86 92 88 53 29 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 70 67 66 73 76 82 78 43 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 63 69 65 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 78 85 76 70 66 62 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS