* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 77 81 84 87 85 81 76 71 69 66 64 66 67 72 72 V (KT) LAND 65 71 77 81 84 87 85 81 76 71 69 66 64 66 67 72 72 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 82 85 87 87 85 81 75 72 69 68 69 70 72 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 11 10 18 16 22 22 19 18 26 23 18 20 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 2 6 8 2 7 5 9 7 6 7 5 SHEAR DIR 256 254 246 239 237 264 262 243 240 271 353 20 26 17 18 10 15 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 149 150 145 149 153 155 152 162 164 167 164 165 163 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 149 150 149 150 142 144 146 146 142 152 151 156 143 143 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.0 -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 65 62 63 60 60 60 59 55 56 55 58 60 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 18 17 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 19 20 19 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 1 7 5 18 12 9 2 -11 -32 -57 -69 -48 -32 -11 29 200 MB DIV 24 45 64 49 46 54 62 50 27 0 -21 -35 -20 -37 0 12 1 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 -1 3 2 7 21 12 13 11 11 19 19 23 14 LAND (KM) 1267 1201 1154 1115 1084 947 816 800 665 534 495 566 702 777 840 875 845 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.3 18.5 19.9 21.5 23.2 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.6 48.0 49.5 51.0 53.7 56.0 57.8 59.4 60.9 62.4 63.9 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 14 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 14 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 26 26 39 39 46 55 62 51 44 63 45 46 39 46 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 19. 22. 20. 16. 11. 6. 4. 1. -1. 1. 2. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.7 45.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.8% 52.0% 40.0% 33.9% 24.5% 30.3% 21.0% 12.3% Logistic: 29.6% 48.9% 40.6% 36.5% 17.8% 32.5% 22.3% 14.1% Bayesian: 42.1% 53.0% 41.4% 11.9% 9.8% 21.5% 2.5% 0.3% Consensus: 34.5% 51.3% 40.7% 27.4% 17.4% 28.1% 15.2% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/06/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 6( 8) 9( 16) 10( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 5( 9) 22( 29) 24( 46) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 77 81 84 87 85 81 76 71 69 66 64 66 67 72 72 18HR AGO 65 64 70 74 77 80 78 74 69 64 62 59 57 59 60 65 65 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 68 71 69 65 60 55 53 50 48 50 51 56 56 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 61 59 55 50 45 43 40 38 40 41 46 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT