* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 160 158 154 154 152 146 143 135 131 128 125 124 120 96 81 69 57 V (KT) LAND 160 158 154 154 152 146 143 135 131 128 125 121 116 67 40 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 160 154 148 145 144 143 145 141 139 133 122 108 89 53 35 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 6 6 6 9 9 9 18 18 24 29 40 40 24 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -2 1 -3 1 4 4 4 7 3 -1 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 259 246 272 301 314 289 320 282 261 261 246 225 205 219 211 226 237 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.3 28.2 28.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 166 167 165 166 166 171 170 169 167 160 155 143 141 138 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 158 162 163 159 157 153 156 159 150 148 140 139 126 120 113 97 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -49.3 -49.2 -48.4 -48.2 -47.3 -47.7 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 2.1 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 13 14 13 13 12 11 8 4 4 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 58 53 52 54 56 53 56 61 65 64 66 62 59 56 51 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 33 30 34 34 34 40 41 43 46 48 51 52 37 28 21 14 850 MB ENV VOR 69 63 52 48 57 46 69 84 115 127 149 127 138 137 136 117 82 200 MB DIV 31 -10 -40 2 60 13 43 20 97 97 66 71 113 82 9 30 27 700-850 TADV 7 2 1 0 0 3 0 7 10 24 38 44 46 77 11 4 18 LAND (KM) 108 56 116 89 96 178 133 107 128 128 12 22 60 -157 -446 -747 -673 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.4 24.6 26.1 28.0 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.7 66.1 67.5 68.9 70.3 72.9 75.1 77.0 78.5 79.4 80.0 80.3 80.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 10 8 7 8 9 9 15 17 13 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 71 60 71 79 68 68 62 60 79 65 48 35 30 3 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -12. -25. -41. -53. -65. -74. -79. -84. -90. -95. -98.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 18. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -1. -2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 16. -5. -16. -24. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -6. -8. -14. -17. -25. -29. -32. -35. -36. -40. -64. -79. -91.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 18.5 64.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 160.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 970.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/06/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 81 75( 95) 78( 99) 71(100) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 99 98(100) 99(100) 99(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 158 154 154 152 146 143 135 131 128 125 121 116 67 40 31 29 18HR AGO 160 159 155 155 153 147 144 136 132 129 126 122 117 68 41 32 30 12HR AGO 160 157 156 156 154 148 145 137 133 130 127 123 118 69 42 33 31 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 148 142 139 131 127 124 121 117 112 63 36 27 25 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 135 132 124 120 117 114 110 105 56 29 20 18 IN 6HR 160 158 149 143 140 136 133 125 121 118 115 111 106 57 30 21 19 IN 12HR 160 158 154 145 139 135 132 124 120 117 114 110 105 56 29 20 18