* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 68 73 76 80 79 75 74 71 68 69 67 66 71 70 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 68 73 76 80 79 75 74 71 68 69 67 66 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 68 71 77 80 81 78 73 67 63 62 62 63 65 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 11 11 11 16 20 22 25 19 25 20 23 24 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -1 1 -1 4 10 3 12 4 11 2 4 6 5 SHEAR DIR 311 282 264 261 255 244 253 250 248 253 323 17 20 12 17 15 15 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 154 152 150 147 152 156 152 157 162 166 164 163 162 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 153 154 152 149 144 147 149 142 147 151 151 144 140 141 137 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -52.8 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 67 66 65 66 63 62 59 57 54 53 57 59 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 17 17 20 20 20 21 21 20 20 19 18 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 4 2 8 18 14 11 14 1 -22 -34 -59 -47 -47 -38 -35 200 MB DIV 22 30 51 55 46 56 46 63 50 29 0 -6 -15 -32 -17 0 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 3 1 6 6 4 3 5 9 12 12 10 LAND (KM) 1284 1217 1148 1095 1060 1026 857 773 755 604 508 507 598 668 743 824 856 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.6 18.9 20.4 22.1 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.8 45.2 46.6 48.1 49.6 52.4 54.8 56.9 58.6 60.0 61.4 63.0 64.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 13 11 11 9 10 11 11 10 6 5 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 37 34 28 27 52 38 50 59 61 49 47 58 46 47 49 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -0. -2. -4. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 18. 21. 25. 24. 20. 19. 16. 13. 14. 12. 11. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.9 43.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 46.9% 33.5% 24.5% 17.4% 34.6% 23.4% 14.1% Logistic: 20.3% 42.2% 33.3% 30.1% 16.5% 30.1% 27.1% 20.2% Bayesian: 17.8% 46.9% 26.9% 5.9% 2.9% 26.6% 15.4% 2.5% Consensus: 19.4% 45.3% 31.2% 20.2% 12.3% 30.4% 22.0% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 5( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 10( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 65 68 73 76 80 79 75 74 71 68 69 67 66 71 70 18HR AGO 55 54 59 62 67 70 74 73 69 68 65 62 63 61 60 65 64 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 59 62 66 65 61 60 57 54 55 53 52 57 56 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 53 57 56 52 51 48 45 46 44 43 48 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT