* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 160 159 157 156 151 149 143 135 136 129 131 133 130 113 89 71 59 V (KT) LAND 160 159 157 156 151 149 143 135 136 129 131 102 56 40 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 160 155 149 144 142 141 140 140 141 136 127 96 53 43 31 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 10 19 21 25 40 36 43 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 -1 -2 0 0 2 7 7 8 3 0 -3 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 260 262 243 271 321 320 337 343 285 265 272 246 229 212 220 234 246 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.4 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.1 28.4 28.5 28.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 165 167 165 166 168 171 168 166 168 173 145 145 140 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 160 157 161 162 156 156 154 162 150 146 146 161 131 123 116 99 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -48.8 -48.6 -48.1 -47.8 -48.0 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.3 2.3 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 10 8 5 2 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 53 55 50 50 51 51 52 56 62 63 66 64 57 59 48 41 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 35 35 33 37 40 40 46 45 51 55 56 46 30 18 12 850 MB ENV VOR 53 65 63 59 55 54 57 83 108 123 139 166 171 150 169 109 67 200 MB DIV 23 24 -28 -32 7 2 11 34 49 51 85 69 93 80 4 21 -7 700-850 TADV 7 7 4 -1 -4 0 1 4 9 18 33 28 27 39 4 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 254 114 56 112 94 122 152 122 84 112 80 -44 -89 72 -196 -405 -382 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.9 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.6 24.6 25.8 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.6 66.0 67.3 68.7 71.3 73.7 75.9 77.8 79.2 80.2 80.7 81.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 15 18 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 75 71 60 70 78 59 72 54 69 67 53 44 13 21 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -12. -25. -41. -53. -65. -74. -78. -82. -87. -92. -96. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 2. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 19. 21. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 2. 5. 5. 12. 11. 18. 24. 24. 9. -12. -26. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -9. -11. -17. -25. -24. -31. -29. -27. -30. -47. -71. -89.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 18.1 63.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 160.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1111.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 81 77( 96) 78( 99) 78(100) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 94 94(100) 97(100) 99(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 159 157 156 151 149 143 135 136 129 131 102 56 40 29 27 27 18HR AGO 160 159 157 156 151 149 143 135 136 129 131 102 56 40 29 27 27 12HR AGO 160 157 156 155 150 148 142 134 135 128 130 101 55 39 28 26 26 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 145 143 137 129 130 123 125 96 50 34 23 21 21 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 139 133 125 126 119 121 92 46 30 19 17 17 IN 6HR 160 159 150 144 141 138 132 124 125 118 120 91 45 29 18 16 16 IN 12HR 160 159 157 148 142 138 132 124 125 118 120 91 45 29 18 16 16