* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 63 73 79 80 79 79 78 77 75 73 74 74 74 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 63 73 79 80 79 79 78 77 75 73 74 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 56 60 68 75 78 78 76 71 69 69 69 70 71 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 11 11 11 13 18 22 19 13 16 23 21 22 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 5 9 3 8 3 4 6 6 8 SHEAR DIR 322 294 274 256 263 231 237 255 247 245 284 357 17 39 24 23 7 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 28.8 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 151 153 155 153 145 147 152 155 148 162 164 164 163 161 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 151 153 155 153 142 143 145 146 139 151 150 145 141 139 136 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.5 -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 67 67 64 65 61 61 58 55 50 50 49 50 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 19 17 22 23 24 24 27 27 27 26 25 26 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 10 17 19 16 11 19 27 26 22 24 2 -10 -21 -15 -20 -18 -19 200 MB DIV 43 42 49 55 62 58 67 65 62 85 32 16 -11 -23 -30 -5 -13 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 0 -4 -2 2 5 4 15 7 14 8 1 7 10 9 LAND (KM) 1352 1285 1228 1156 1096 1039 963 837 805 707 584 533 583 591 702 767 795 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.2 17.2 18.5 19.9 21.5 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.6 44.9 46.3 47.8 50.8 53.4 55.6 57.5 59.0 60.4 61.9 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 15 14 12 11 10 9 10 11 10 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 29 36 36 29 36 42 43 54 61 50 44 57 48 45 49 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 4. 6. 7. 7. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 28. 34. 35. 34. 34. 33. 32. 30. 28. 29. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 42.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.77 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 38.5% 25.3% 16.3% 10.4% 20.9% 22.9% 18.7% Logistic: 19.3% 52.4% 38.0% 31.0% 21.7% 33.7% 31.6% 31.1% Bayesian: 8.8% 62.3% 34.7% 7.2% 4.4% 33.6% 2.6% 6.6% Consensus: 13.2% 51.1% 32.7% 18.1% 12.1% 29.4% 19.0% 18.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 21( 21) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 55 60 63 73 79 80 79 79 78 77 75 73 74 74 74 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 57 67 73 74 73 73 72 71 69 67 68 68 68 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 49 59 65 66 65 65 64 63 61 59 60 60 60 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 48 54 55 54 54 53 52 50 48 49 49 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT