* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 65 71 77 82 83 81 82 81 76 74 73 71 68 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 65 71 77 82 83 81 82 81 76 74 73 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 62 69 75 79 82 81 78 75 72 67 63 60 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 7 6 11 12 15 11 15 18 19 26 41 25 25 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 1 -1 -1 -2 1 3 7 5 5 -6 5 6 6 7 SHEAR DIR 303 284 288 245 253 251 240 239 249 264 305 11 27 31 13 12 20 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 148 148 150 147 150 152 155 153 157 166 164 164 162 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 148 148 150 147 149 149 150 146 149 156 149 145 140 137 134 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -52.9 -52.6 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 68 68 66 63 67 61 60 56 51 52 53 58 60 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 15 18 18 20 22 24 25 25 27 27 25 25 25 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 16 16 12 12 14 32 31 27 13 -1 -11 -28 -41 -48 -41 200 MB DIV 30 58 49 53 61 46 67 66 41 42 51 7 -27 -15 -28 15 11 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 0 -1 -6 -3 2 3 13 5 5 7 5 13 20 21 LAND (KM) 1449 1369 1302 1234 1166 1085 1056 886 809 740 568 490 520 612 743 839 910 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.9 16.9 18.0 19.3 21.0 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.4 43.8 45.2 46.6 49.5 52.3 54.7 56.9 58.7 60.4 62.0 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 11 11 9 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 31 37 34 25 50 37 52 59 62 49 58 58 52 54 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 12. 11. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 26. 32. 37. 38. 36. 37. 36. 31. 29. 28. 26. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 41.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 43.2% 29.4% 19.0% 10.7% 21.5% 24.3% 29.3% Logistic: 18.1% 52.2% 37.2% 26.5% 16.6% 35.1% 38.6% 43.5% Bayesian: 12.5% 70.8% 37.0% 7.5% 4.4% 48.1% 10.5% 21.0% Consensus: 14.5% 55.4% 34.6% 17.7% 10.6% 34.9% 24.5% 31.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 1( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 55 60 65 71 77 82 83 81 82 81 76 74 73 71 68 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 59 65 71 76 77 75 76 75 70 68 67 65 62 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 51 57 63 68 69 67 68 67 62 60 59 57 54 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 46 52 57 58 56 57 56 51 49 48 46 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT