* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/03/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 104 104 106 107 108 106 111 113 114 121 124 125 124 122 124 V (KT) LAND 100 102 104 104 106 107 108 106 111 113 114 121 124 125 124 122 124 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 103 105 107 114 115 114 112 111 109 112 117 119 117 113 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 8 8 11 11 11 11 13 9 12 8 14 16 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 8 6 7 4 6 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 2 0 2 11 9 SHEAR DIR 12 12 334 22 29 332 332 292 290 286 298 278 261 267 285 257 250 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 143 144 149 155 156 155 156 158 161 161 164 165 168 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 136 137 142 150 152 150 151 152 153 151 150 146 149 150 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.4 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 12 12 10 8 700-500 MB RH 56 54 56 57 57 60 62 63 66 65 66 63 65 63 65 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 28 31 33 35 34 37 38 39 43 46 49 52 54 59 850 MB ENV VOR 79 75 77 80 77 80 73 66 64 59 61 56 78 104 137 138 149 200 MB DIV 35 23 22 44 38 42 102 22 67 35 48 36 73 84 55 54 104 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 -5 -2 -1 11 9 15 7 12 10 21 38 44 LAND (KM) 1442 1372 1256 1154 1056 887 797 528 268 189 230 278 343 386 271 246 219 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.5 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.9 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.2 21.3 22.3 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.3 51.4 52.5 53.5 55.7 58.1 60.7 63.3 66.0 68.5 71.0 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 8 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 40 49 45 48 46 65 64 58 76 66 54 54 87 77 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 7. 9. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 11. 13. 14. 21. 24. 25. 24. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.8 49.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 600.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 15.9% 10.9% 7.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 8.0% 6.6% 6.4% 3.2% 4.8% 3.2% 1.7% Bayesian: 7.5% 6.7% 9.6% 0.6% 0.8% 3.2% 1.5% 0.4% Consensus: 7.7% 10.2% 9.0% 4.9% 3.6% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/03/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 26( 42) 27( 58) 27( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 22( 24) 38( 53) 43( 73) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 104 104 106 107 108 106 111 113 114 121 124 125 124 122 124 18HR AGO 100 99 101 101 103 104 105 103 108 110 111 118 121 122 121 119 121 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 98 99 100 98 103 105 106 113 116 117 116 114 116 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 93 94 92 97 99 100 107 110 111 110 108 110 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 82 83 81 86 88 89 96 99 100 99 97 99 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 83 84 82 87 89 90 97 100 101 100 98 100 IN 12HR 100 102 104 95 89 85 86 84 89 91 92 99 102 103 102 100 102