* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/03/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 98 99 102 102 102 105 106 109 109 115 117 121 123 124 125 V (KT) LAND 95 96 98 99 102 102 102 105 106 109 109 115 117 121 123 124 125 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 97 100 102 105 109 110 107 105 107 106 109 114 115 116 113 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 8 8 11 13 10 16 15 13 9 13 10 11 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 5 7 5 9 2 6 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 355 9 26 23 6 14 338 328 298 288 264 253 257 264 281 272 248 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 140 140 143 149 156 154 155 155 158 160 163 163 163 167 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 133 133 136 143 151 150 150 149 151 151 151 148 147 150 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.2 -49.9 -49.1 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 8 700-500 MB RH 53 51 54 54 54 58 62 64 65 69 67 67 67 67 67 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 26 29 30 30 33 34 35 35 39 40 45 49 53 57 850 MB ENV VOR 66 72 73 77 76 78 81 75 68 66 60 55 57 93 116 150 155 200 MB DIV 23 28 29 36 39 70 57 69 32 66 46 69 49 66 66 78 75 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 1 15 4 13 15 14 11 26 44 LAND (KM) 1586 1502 1422 1357 1259 1049 880 798 528 285 245 299 378 342 307 411 312 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 17.9 17.6 17.4 17.1 16.8 16.9 17.5 18.4 19.5 20.7 22.0 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 48.0 49.2 50.2 51.3 53.5 55.8 58.2 60.7 63.3 65.9 68.4 70.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 25 39 44 48 47 68 57 59 66 61 56 46 85 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -4. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 3. 4. 8. 8. 10. 9. 13. 14. 19. 22. 25. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 10. 11. 14. 14. 20. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.2 46.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 638.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 14.0% 9.8% 7.2% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 3.7% 4.3% 5.1% 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.8% 10.8% 6.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 6.1% 9.5% 6.8% 4.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/03/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 24( 50) 24( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 4( 6) 37( 41) 68( 81) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 98 99 102 102 102 105 106 109 109 115 117 121 123 124 125 18HR AGO 95 94 96 97 100 100 100 103 104 107 107 113 115 119 121 122 123 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 95 95 95 98 99 102 102 108 110 114 116 117 118 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 88 88 88 91 92 95 95 101 103 107 109 110 111 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 76 76 79 80 83 83 89 91 95 97 98 99 IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 77 77 80 81 84 84 90 92 96 98 99 100 IN 12HR 95 96 98 89 83 79 79 82 83 86 86 92 94 98 100 101 102