* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 08/31/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 73 77 81 87 93 97 103 108 111 114 114 115 115 117 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 73 77 81 87 93 97 103 108 111 114 114 115 115 117 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 72 75 78 82 88 95 100 105 109 111 111 109 107 108 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 3 1 7 5 4 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 2 3 0 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 65 79 147 67 105 55 51 357 26 9 25 344 345 313 315 278 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 125 124 123 123 125 129 132 136 140 141 147 145 148 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 117 116 115 116 118 123 126 130 135 136 139 137 145 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 62 62 63 60 56 54 52 53 55 59 64 63 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 22 23 22 24 26 27 30 33 34 36 38 39 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR 47 57 71 77 75 87 86 85 96 101 96 102 102 96 92 103 97 200 MB DIV 43 52 58 49 62 86 37 27 15 0 -21 12 20 87 70 92 64 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 8 6 4 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 0 9 12 8 LAND (KM) 1605 1702 1800 1903 2006 2090 1930 1750 1574 1428 1285 1134 920 985 826 528 293 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.2 16.9 16.5 16.2 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.4 33.3 34.2 35.1 36.1 38.1 40.4 42.8 45.2 47.5 49.8 52.1 54.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 7 9 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 9 7 5 9 26 30 26 28 53 35 40 41 62 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 17. 21. 27. 33. 37. 43. 48. 51. 54. 54. 55. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.4 32.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 08/31/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.93 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 44.9% 36.0% 23.8% 14.7% 26.2% 25.3% 24.7% Logistic: 13.6% 39.9% 24.0% 12.0% 7.3% 23.8% 9.9% 4.5% Bayesian: 19.3% 41.6% 19.6% 4.2% 2.0% 14.8% 4.0% 3.3% Consensus: 16.3% 42.1% 26.5% 13.3% 8.0% 21.6% 13.1% 10.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 08/31/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 6( 10) 8( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 73 77 81 87 93 97 103 108 111 114 114 115 115 117 18HR AGO 60 59 64 67 71 75 81 87 91 97 102 105 108 108 109 109 111 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 63 67 73 79 83 89 94 97 100 100 101 101 103 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 58 64 70 74 80 85 88 91 91 92 92 94 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT