* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 08/31/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 73 80 86 91 97 105 106 113 115 114 114 114 114 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 73 80 86 91 97 105 106 113 115 114 114 114 114 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 70 75 81 85 89 94 100 105 108 108 105 105 105 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 6 4 3 8 8 4 8 10 12 12 16 12 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 2 0 3 0 2 4 3 1 4 1 3 2 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 65 38 77 91 141 96 105 56 36 35 36 41 5 347 331 312 287 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 127 126 125 123 125 126 131 135 139 145 149 152 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 121 119 118 117 116 118 119 125 129 133 138 143 147 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 64 61 61 58 51 46 47 48 51 55 60 61 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 21 21 23 24 25 27 31 31 35 37 37 38 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 62 79 83 92 98 91 103 112 106 111 111 107 105 93 97 200 MB DIV 38 56 62 63 65 83 85 -6 25 -5 -13 -7 27 41 42 55 46 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 4 6 6 2 1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 0 3 12 6 LAND (KM) 1540 1643 1746 1844 1942 2137 2007 1845 1673 1505 1354 1215 969 899 796 633 388 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.3 16.9 16.5 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.8 32.7 33.7 34.6 35.5 37.3 39.5 41.9 44.3 46.7 49.1 51.4 53.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 9 10 11 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 12 11 7 7 13 19 32 23 51 37 38 41 56 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 12. 18. 19. 17. 17. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 31. 36. 42. 50. 51. 58. 60. 59. 59. 59. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.3 31.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 08/31/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.90 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 33.5% 25.2% 13.4% 8.4% 23.0% 24.5% 22.6% Logistic: 7.8% 26.2% 16.0% 7.5% 3.1% 11.5% 7.1% 2.0% Bayesian: 7.8% 12.8% 7.3% 1.7% 1.3% 8.2% 16.1% 5.1% Consensus: 8.0% 24.2% 16.2% 7.5% 4.2% 14.2% 15.9% 9.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 08/31/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 69 73 80 86 91 97 105 106 113 115 114 114 114 114 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 68 75 81 86 92 100 101 108 110 109 109 109 109 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 60 67 73 78 84 92 93 100 102 101 101 101 101 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 56 62 67 73 81 82 89 91 90 90 90 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT