* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 42 46 54 53 46 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 44 52 52 45 35 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 36 38 41 38 31 26 23 22 23 25 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 38 37 42 45 57 54 43 37 35 38 36 34 31 44 44 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 3 1 0 2 7 3 0 2 0 2 0 1 -5 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 267 265 259 250 262 250 250 243 232 237 260 280 307 311 303 284 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.7 27.3 26.3 24.9 23.4 20.2 16.4 14.4 16.5 14.4 14.9 14.2 14.2 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 144 135 130 120 108 98 83 75 73 76 73 72 68 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 125 118 114 106 97 88 76 71 70 72 70 68 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 2 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 68 69 70 67 63 57 50 52 52 46 41 43 50 41 44 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 18 20 26 37 40 37 33 26 20 16 14 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -3 8 -5 15 28 30 48 48 104 116 95 86 99 52 -16 -56 -63 200 MB DIV 60 52 37 65 75 90 104 12 79 81 28 -6 -38 -27 -28 -21 -6 700-850 TADV 27 24 31 23 12 29 -14 -35 -24 -29 -6 2 2 15 24 19 -14 LAND (KM) 59 34 39 17 22 332 372 388 380 255 658 1222 1264 697 447 327 268 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.7 33.5 34.6 35.6 37.6 39.6 41.5 43.4 45.2 47.1 49.1 51.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.3 79.4 78.5 77.0 75.5 71.4 66.5 61.1 55.8 50.6 44.1 36.3 28.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 14 16 17 20 22 22 21 23 26 27 27 20 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 19 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -6. -17. -26. -33. -41. -46. -52. -60. -67. -71. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 19. 25. 23. 17. 7. -3. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 18. 11. 1. -15. -28. -39. -50. -60. -69. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.8 80.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 40 44 52 52 45 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 42 50 50 43 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 38 46 46 39 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 38 38 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT