* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 49 49 50 51 53 52 54 55 54 52 49 43 36 33 32 V (KT) LAND 60 46 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 21 18 18 29 24 31 22 27 15 27 24 35 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 223 249 248 219 237 221 237 235 253 250 268 277 295 301 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 166 166 167 166 166 167 168 168 168 169 169 170 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 136 135 134 138 138 139 141 140 140 139 141 140 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 8 6 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 62 62 55 59 54 57 55 60 58 62 51 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 19 20 20 18 19 19 20 19 17 14 12 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 2 -18 -13 7 30 33 12 -8 -25 -11 -32 -21 -48 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 21 14 25 37 57 27 15 31 17 19 22 14 -17 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 0 -4 1 -9 1 -3 1 0 0 -1 -1 -7 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -135 -147 -158 -161 -164 -129 -93 -86 -96 -127 -170 -221 -265 -452 -444 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.6 97.6 97.7 97.7 97.8 97.5 97.2 97.1 97.0 97.0 96.9 96.9 96.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 28 21 5 7 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -15. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -8. -11. -11. -10. -6. -4. -4. -4. -1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -28. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -8. -6. -5. -6. -8. -11. -17. -24. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.1 97.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.12 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.2% 4.9% 3.9% 2.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 27.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 3.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 46 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 50 46 43 41 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 49 47 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT