* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 60 58 59 59 58 57 57 59 59 61 57 49 43 40 39 V (KT) LAND 70 52 41 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 52 41 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 16 22 17 26 24 28 26 24 17 18 20 30 25 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -3 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 0 -1 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 248 228 230 248 247 219 236 222 245 225 263 233 288 261 300 291 N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.3 29.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 167 166 166 166 167 166 167 167 168 168 169 168 171 162 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 137 136 137 137 141 140 143 144 142 140 140 140 150 145 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.7 -52.7 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 10 8 7 9 6 8 5 7 4 8 5 8 6 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 62 62 60 59 58 54 55 57 61 64 61 54 63 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 23 21 22 20 21 21 21 20 19 18 14 9 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 12 5 -22 -14 16 29 31 1 6 -10 9 -18 -11 -21 -13 N/A 200 MB DIV 0 25 21 14 26 41 6 45 10 55 6 49 12 7 -3 29 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 7 6 1 -1 -6 -2 -4 -1 0 0 -1 0 -6 -2 3 N/A LAND (KM) -76 -99 -122 -121 -120 -97 -70 -48 -44 -63 -104 -157 -197 -286 -359 -366 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.3 97.4 97.5 97.5 97.4 97.1 96.9 96.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 10 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 12 5 5 5 15 42 51 48 37 12 6 5 5 5 4 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -9. -12. -12. -10. -6. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -19. -24. -30. -32. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -12. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. -11. -11. -9. -13. -21. -27. -30. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.7 97.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.05 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.50 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.9% 4.9% 3.9% 3.4% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 52 41 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 58 52 48 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 56 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT