* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 99 97 93 88 80 80 77 76 76 74 71 70 67 66 60 V (KT) LAND 100 74 54 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 74 54 42 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 12 16 22 16 24 22 31 23 21 16 23 23 32 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -5 -2 -7 -1 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 251 259 231 230 251 219 234 225 234 227 241 265 282 263 273 271 264 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.6 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 167 165 165 163 163 167 168 168 168 171 170 170 168 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 138 136 133 134 133 133 138 143 145 143 154 147 145 140 133 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 68 65 63 56 61 53 55 54 57 59 54 54 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 25 23 21 22 20 23 23 23 22 19 16 15 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 19 14 -12 15 24 57 30 7 0 7 -4 -7 -28 17 -10 200 MB DIV 13 8 29 34 12 46 48 59 29 35 32 0 38 33 4 25 33 700-850 TADV 17 5 7 5 4 1 -1 3 3 4 2 -1 7 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) -28 -66 -103 -121 -139 -138 -99 -61 -41 -25 -31 -74 -106 -400 -358 -313 -309 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.3 97.5 97.6 97.8 97.9 97.8 97.6 97.3 96.8 96.4 96.2 95.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 10 6 7 3 0 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 12 5 6 7 17 42 45 47 45 28 6 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -5. -6. -7. -8. -13. -18. -20. -21. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -20. -20. -23. -24. -24. -26. -29. -30. -33. -34. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 28.2 97.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.54 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 12.6% 8.9% 6.6% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.5% 3.8% 2.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 74 54 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 100 99 79 67 61 55 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 12HR AGO 100 97 96 84 78 72 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 84 78 76 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 75 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT