* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 108 108 106 94 89 80 80 77 76 74 80 77 73 67 62 V (KT) LAND 105 108 90 70 53 36 30 28 27 28 28 25 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 109 96 73 55 36 29 28 27 32 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 9 6 18 17 26 23 32 17 19 11 20 15 25 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 1 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -4 -4 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 197 232 256 272 214 245 212 236 213 224 230 243 227 280 257 294 304 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.9 30.7 30.4 30.1 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 167 168 168 166 167 167 168 168 169 169 169 169 169 168 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 141 141 138 134 137 141 144 146 151 154 149 144 138 139 135 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 71 72 67 65 59 61 52 53 54 54 55 59 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 29 26 29 27 22 22 19 22 23 24 21 24 19 16 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 10 2 19 -15 16 10 48 6 0 -27 0 -40 -14 -32 -4 200 MB DIV 55 66 29 14 30 21 56 50 41 11 33 11 51 4 34 -5 25 700-850 TADV 5 17 13 3 4 4 1 -6 0 0 0 7 1 7 0 6 4 LAND (KM) 115 51 -13 -47 -82 -112 -99 -55 -7 12 5 -36 -93 -217 -238 -222 -245 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.7 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.6 97.0 97.1 97.3 97.5 97.3 97.0 96.4 95.8 95.2 94.7 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 3 2 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 40 48 32 5 12 48 47 47 54 23 6 6 5 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -8. -14. -19. -23. -25. -26. -27. -29. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -4. -4. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. -0. 1. 0. -4. -6. -11. -8. -9. -9. -12. -10. -17. -20. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 1. -11. -16. -25. -25. -28. -29. -31. -25. -28. -32. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 27.1 96.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.0% 26.2% 23.7% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.7% 30.5% 23.4% 12.1% 6.3% 4.7% 2.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 21.1% 11.1% 5.1% 13.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.9% 22.6% 17.4% 13.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 0( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 69 0( 69) 0( 69) 0( 69) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 108 90 70 53 36 30 28 27 28 28 25 26 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 105 104 86 66 49 32 26 24 23 24 24 21 22 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 105 102 101 81 64 47 41 39 38 39 39 36 37 38 38 38 38 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 78 61 55 53 52 53 53 50 51 52 52 52 52 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 69 63 61 60 61 61 58 59 60 60 60 60 IN 6HR 105 108 99 93 90 83 77 75 74 75 75 72 73 74 74 74 74 IN 12HR 105 108 90 81 75 71 65 63 62 63 63 60 61 62 62 62 62