* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 100 103 102 102 92 89 80 78 75 77 78 82 79 77 69 V (KT) LAND 90 95 100 103 102 69 43 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 102 104 105 73 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 6 3 10 15 10 21 18 27 24 30 22 23 15 22 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 0 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 231 252 199 244 262 222 247 213 231 226 227 235 234 226 263 271 293 SST (C) 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.6 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.9 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 166 160 160 168 165 163 165 168 168 169 167 168 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 150 144 137 135 138 134 131 134 140 146 151 150 145 147 148 144 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 11 9 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 69 68 69 70 65 62 56 58 48 47 49 51 48 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 27 25 28 23 24 21 23 24 26 27 28 25 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 28 12 21 24 13 14 -10 14 12 37 -2 19 2 22 -1 4 -27 200 MB DIV 27 17 47 57 28 33 36 51 26 29 10 33 23 33 13 25 0 700-850 TADV 7 1 4 18 17 7 10 2 -6 1 1 -1 5 6 15 6 6 LAND (KM) 211 160 127 100 41 -42 -72 -79 -72 -53 -38 -38 -30 -94 -174 -301 -394 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.1 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.6 96.1 96.5 96.8 97.2 97.4 97.5 97.4 97.1 96.5 95.6 94.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 2 1 0 1 2 3 5 2 4 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 82 64 40 30 30 46 41 35 41 47 43 47 24 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 2. -3. -3. -8. -6. -6. -4. -4. -2. -6. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 12. 12. 2. -1. -10. -12. -15. -13. -12. -8. -11. -13. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.6 95.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.24 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.2% 40.9% 34.5% 24.8% 17.1% 15.2% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 17.4% 34.7% 28.6% 14.7% 5.8% 10.9% 3.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 22.0% 21.9% 18.5% 31.5% 4.3% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 23.5% 32.5% 27.2% 23.7% 9.0% 10.1% 5.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 22( 31) 24( 48) 0( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 65( 69) 13( 73) 0( 73) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 95 100 103 102 69 43 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 90 89 94 97 96 63 37 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 90 87 86 89 88 55 29 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 46 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 95 86 80 77 56 30 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 95 100 91 85 81 55 45 41 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39