* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 87 94 102 110 114 115 103 94 81 74 64 58 52 52 51 50 V (KT) LAND 75 87 94 102 110 114 72 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 90 103 113 120 118 75 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 14 11 7 20 7 20 19 26 24 31 23 38 33 50 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 2 0 -3 0 -1 -3 -1 1 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 196 212 243 261 246 261 214 240 218 237 217 228 238 252 248 247 237 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.0 29.7 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.1 30.3 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 170 169 162 168 167 164 165 167 167 169 169 171 173 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 156 158 156 147 137 139 136 132 134 136 141 149 146 145 157 141 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 68 70 68 74 69 67 60 63 56 58 50 51 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 26 29 29 31 25 24 21 22 21 18 16 16 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 22 32 10 10 41 9 19 -12 17 8 37 3 3 -31 -4 -20 35 200 MB DIV 30 36 36 23 41 23 37 38 63 49 31 27 9 -1 22 22 46 700-850 TADV 5 12 9 5 4 20 4 7 4 -1 2 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 394 320 253 195 159 38 -59 -112 -118 -95 -67 -42 -8 -113 -235 -346 -448 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.0 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.8 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.1 94.7 95.2 95.8 96.6 97.2 97.5 97.6 97.5 97.2 96.8 96.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 7 5 3 2 0 1 1 2 6 6 9 15 11 HEAT CONTENT 68 68 85 84 47 31 45 5 5 21 43 50 49 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 5. 8. 2. -1. -5. -5. -7. -12. -15. -15. -13. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 16. 12. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 12. 19. 27. 35. 39. 40. 28. 19. 6. -1. -11. -17. -23. -23. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.4 93.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 21.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.69 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 5.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 6.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 14.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.3% 69.0% 54.6% 52.1% 33.5% 36.0% 25.6% 13.9% Logistic: 60.0% 82.2% 79.9% 72.6% 41.2% 56.3% 30.5% 13.0% Bayesian: 25.5% 3.0% 3.3% 6.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 46.9% 51.4% 45.9% 43.5% 25.2% 30.9% 18.7% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 16( 20) 29( 43) 30( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 5( 8) 37( 42) 4( 44) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 87 94 102 110 114 72 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 75 74 81 89 97 101 59 29 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 79 87 91 49 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 73 77 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 75 87 78 72 69 69 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 75 87 94 85 79 75 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS