* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 61 67 74 69 68 65 65 64 67 68 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 61 67 46 34 29 28 27 27 27 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 48 58 68 47 34 29 28 27 27 27 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 5 5 8 6 10 6 17 17 35 37 28 26 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -5 -1 -4 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -6 2 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 236 214 236 259 187 224 163 266 253 272 254 259 252 239 229 246 236 SST (C) 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.5 29.6 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.6 30.9 29.5 30.3 30.8 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 168 170 171 171 171 159 160 168 168 168 169 170 157 170 170 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 152 158 160 160 154 137 134 140 139 140 149 158 132 149 157 160 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 9 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 65 65 65 70 66 70 64 63 60 61 54 51 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 15 15 19 20 22 18 17 16 17 18 22 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 4 20 26 18 21 7 26 2 19 -23 -8 -24 13 1 6 -4 24 200 MB DIV 12 6 21 16 21 36 33 28 13 14 33 58 17 43 28 0 34 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 2 1 8 11 6 7 1 -3 -2 1 -1 3 5 LAND (KM) 235 290 354 416 363 202 124 15 -59 -77 -89 -46 -10 -33 -17 42 -58 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.0 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.8 93.2 93.6 94.1 95.2 96.2 96.7 96.8 96.6 96.0 95.1 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 7 8 9 9 7 5 3 3 3 4 6 4 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 47 62 82 79 85 34 33 41 26 16 24 31 39 52 55 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 4. -1. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 5. 8. 2. 0. -2. -1. -0. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 31. 37. 44. 39. 38. 35. 35. 34. 37. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.5 92.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.85 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 27.5% 17.0% 8.7% 8.0% 14.6% 22.7% 41.3% Logistic: 12.2% 51.8% 48.3% 40.3% 14.3% 45.0% 37.2% 40.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.1% 5.2% 2.5% 0.7% 2.1% 3.7% 4.8% Consensus: 6.8% 27.1% 23.5% 17.2% 7.7% 20.5% 21.2% 28.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 43 49 61 67 46 34 29 28 27 27 27 31 28 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 45 57 63 42 30 25 24 23 23 23 27 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 39 51 57 36 24 19 18 17 17 17 21 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 42 48 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT