* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 52 46 41 35 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 60 52 46 41 35 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 60 53 47 42 36 32 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 12 12 16 16 21 29 32 29 25 24 27 29 33 34 34 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 0 -2 -1 -4 0 -1 0 2 3 4 0 2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 264 250 222 210 210 208 218 209 215 209 222 222 229 227 232 229 239 SST (C) 25.3 24.7 24.2 23.6 23.5 23.2 22.7 22.4 22.1 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.6 23.2 23.3 23.1 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 116 110 105 99 97 93 87 83 80 80 82 83 86 91 93 90 86 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 46 44 46 42 41 39 39 40 38 33 30 30 29 30 27 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 17 17 15 17 15 14 11 9 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 13 17 12 -4 -6 -32 -21 -21 -32 -22 -19 -33 -36 -51 -70 -102 200 MB DIV 1 8 17 21 18 25 16 5 5 12 10 7 5 2 3 4 -3 700-850 TADV 16 11 13 11 11 7 9 8 5 0 3 2 1 1 -1 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1993 1959 1915 1871 1833 1788 1745 1639 1607 1589 1585 1594 1595 1815 1653 1575 1499 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.2 24.1 25.7 27.0 28.1 28.9 29.6 30.2 30.7 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.9 133.4 133.9 134.4 134.9 135.8 136.3 136.5 136.7 137.0 137.4 137.9 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 5 4 3 4 3 6 3 6 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -32. -36. -40. -44. -47. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -20. -23. -26. -30. -35. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -18. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -24. -29. -35. -39. -42. -47. -52. -59. -67. -77. -86. -95.-104.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.4 132.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 620.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##