* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 85 75 67 61 51 44 38 35 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 85 75 67 61 51 44 38 35 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 85 75 67 60 49 42 37 33 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 13 11 14 20 28 33 29 26 25 29 32 34 37 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 0 2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 9 7 6 3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 239 237 258 255 231 199 203 212 208 214 208 211 218 230 233 233 234 SST (C) 26.3 25.6 24.9 24.3 23.8 23.3 23.2 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.6 22.9 22.6 22.1 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 119 112 106 100 95 94 87 86 85 84 83 85 88 86 81 76 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -54.3 -55.1 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 44 46 41 40 42 42 40 37 35 33 33 28 23 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 20 19 17 16 15 17 17 16 13 9 5 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 16 13 22 22 -2 -2 -25 -15 -8 -16 -26 -19 -28 -55 -59 -59 200 MB DIV 43 29 4 7 13 29 17 15 3 -2 16 9 0 -4 -2 -6 4 700-850 TADV 10 11 15 13 15 8 7 7 7 9 4 1 -4 -8 -19 -16 -17 LAND (KM) 1985 1987 1993 1956 1908 1819 1755 1706 1627 1613 1597 1586 1575 1644 1666 1478 1462 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.3 22.2 24.0 25.6 27.1 28.3 29.2 30.0 30.7 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.8 132.4 132.9 133.4 133.8 134.6 135.3 135.9 136.5 137.0 137.4 137.8 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 4 3 3 6 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -27. -35. -42. -49. -55. -60. -64. -68. -72. -76. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -12. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -28. -34. -44. -51. -57. -60. -66. -71. -80. -89.-100.-110.-119.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.8 131.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 786.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##