* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 71 74 77 75 71 64 56 51 44 39 32 27 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 71 74 77 75 71 64 56 51 44 39 32 27 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 69 71 73 70 62 54 46 39 34 30 26 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 1 4 4 7 9 4 9 16 23 33 31 29 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -3 -3 -2 1 1 0 5 -1 1 -1 0 -1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 16 359 6 200 233 201 240 214 210 218 218 220 228 220 219 216 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.4 25.7 24.7 24.2 23.2 22.8 22.7 22.8 23.1 23.1 22.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 141 137 132 127 120 109 104 93 89 88 88 91 91 89 87 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 60 62 59 54 47 43 38 38 38 36 36 32 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 21 20 20 19 17 17 16 17 16 15 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -9 -10 -4 11 28 26 35 39 31 31 6 3 5 8 -2 -1 200 MB DIV 51 47 29 25 35 27 44 8 7 7 17 8 2 -11 0 1 3 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 0 3 7 8 10 11 8 10 7 8 3 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1603 1685 1745 1792 1844 1932 1964 1975 1915 1858 1797 1754 1661 1706 1715 1692 1675 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.4 19.6 20.9 22.2 23.5 24.9 26.2 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.8 127.0 128.0 129.1 130.9 132.1 133.1 133.9 134.6 135.2 135.8 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 9 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 20. 16. 9. 1. -4. -11. -16. -23. -28. -37. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.0 124.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 14.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 13.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 8.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.4% 62.8% 62.1% 56.1% 38.2% 44.6% 25.6% 0.0% Logistic: 34.6% 45.7% 38.8% 34.7% 14.0% 27.0% 6.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.6% 7.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.2% 38.6% 34.2% 30.5% 17.6% 23.9% 10.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##