* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 64 71 75 81 80 77 70 63 57 52 44 38 31 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 58 64 71 75 81 80 77 70 63 57 52 44 38 31 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 68 71 74 71 65 58 50 43 38 34 29 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 1 2 6 5 6 4 4 10 19 31 31 30 34 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 2 1 5 2 1 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 31 33 349 19 344 211 209 205 211 197 214 213 208 221 233 232 237 SST (C) 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.1 25.9 24.9 24.5 23.2 22.8 22.8 22.5 22.7 23.2 23.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 145 140 136 124 122 111 107 93 89 89 84 87 92 92 91 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 62 59 57 55 50 46 43 40 39 38 33 31 27 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 22 22 23 22 22 20 19 17 18 17 17 16 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -12 -10 -9 0 19 23 37 37 38 29 11 -6 -5 9 4 -8 200 MB DIV 50 44 41 29 36 17 40 26 3 1 14 25 -1 3 2 -2 -4 700-850 TADV -3 -2 1 0 0 4 6 6 9 6 6 8 5 3 7 2 2 LAND (KM) 1482 1561 1647 1699 1757 1845 1895 1913 1857 1779 1720 1674 1640 1623 1748 1735 1756 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.3 18.3 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.5 24.8 26.2 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.2 125.5 126.7 127.8 129.8 131.2 132.2 132.9 133.5 134.1 134.8 135.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 8 8 7 7 4 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 13 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 8. 4. -0. -4. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 21. 25. 31. 30. 27. 20. 13. 7. 2. -6. -12. -19. -30. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.9 122.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 11.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 13.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 10.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 9.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.0% 66.3% 60.7% 53.7% 35.4% 52.2% 40.1% 0.0% Logistic: 42.8% 57.3% 50.7% 45.8% 18.7% 40.5% 12.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 13.2% 20.1% 8.1% 4.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 30.7% 47.9% 39.8% 34.6% 19.1% 31.1% 17.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##