* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 44 52 57 61 67 68 73 78 87 86 89 90 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 44 52 57 46 33 35 40 45 54 46 37 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 31 35 39 44 41 31 35 40 46 52 50 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 12 12 8 4 6 10 9 10 9 16 11 10 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 7 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 358 340 337 360 351 20 350 11 284 298 273 270 249 23 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.9 30.8 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.7 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 150 155 153 153 159 160 168 170 168 164 166 162 148 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 153 150 155 153 153 159 157 161 170 154 149 151 147 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 12 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 58 60 61 67 69 75 74 76 76 76 74 75 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 10 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 59 64 73 68 54 25 34 14 24 24 32 49 73 83 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 7 20 25 42 79 42 47 31 25 34 27 10 24 63 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 6 2 0 -3 4 -2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 237 201 238 373 336 293 62 151 -74 -63 56 99 148 118 -18 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.0 71.0 72.9 74.8 76.8 80.5 83.8 86.6 88.9 90.6 92.0 93.0 94.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 19 19 17 16 13 10 8 6 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 38 33 73 83 58 39 53 48 33 32 26 33 35 19 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. 42. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -10. -10. -10. -5. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 22. 27. 31. 37. 38. 43. 48. 57. 56. 59. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 69.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.85 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.1% 10.5% 7.2% 6.8% 10.0% 13.3% 29.0% Logistic: 9.3% 24.3% 16.8% 10.6% 6.4% 17.6% 26.3% 54.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 11.6% 5.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2.9% 2.1% 38.2% Consensus: 5.2% 17.7% 10.9% 6.0% 4.4% 10.2% 13.9% 40.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 37 44 52 57 46 33 35 40 45 54 46 37 32 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 35 42 50 55 44 31 33 38 43 52 44 35 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 46 51 40 27 29 34 39 48 40 31 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 37 42 31 18 20 25 30 39 31 22 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT