* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 54 61 71 78 82 80 75 70 63 59 53 46 37 27 V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 54 61 71 78 82 80 75 70 63 59 53 46 37 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 48 52 62 68 70 68 62 54 46 39 33 28 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 6 3 3 5 2 2 1 2 4 6 22 22 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 -1 1 4 8 8 6 5 4 0 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 25 13 7 21 10 335 55 139 119 18 16 337 248 233 231 233 221 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.1 26.3 25.7 24.5 24.3 23.1 22.9 22.3 22.4 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 156 155 154 149 135 126 119 106 105 92 92 84 82 80 81 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 60 61 58 57 57 54 51 47 44 42 36 35 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 23 23 23 25 23 21 20 17 15 14 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -8 -9 -9 -5 2 12 28 18 34 45 31 13 -23 -19 -28 -31 200 MB DIV 57 66 71 63 51 20 42 3 25 17 0 -6 1 4 9 5 4 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 4 4 6 9 7 9 9 7 2 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1261 1331 1398 1475 1562 1708 1813 1900 1958 1979 1924 1818 1728 1457 1528 1508 1497 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.5 21.7 23.2 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.9 121.2 122.6 124.0 126.6 128.8 130.6 131.9 132.8 133.4 133.7 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 7 7 12 8 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 16 15 14 13 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 19. 17. 14. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 10. 7. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 7. 11. 10. 8. 5. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 19. 26. 36. 43. 47. 45. 40. 35. 28. 24. 18. 11. 2. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 118.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 38.1% 27.6% 19.8% 14.4% 29.7% 37.0% 39.7% Logistic: 22.1% 57.4% 38.8% 31.8% 13.0% 36.3% 18.1% 5.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 18.8% 8.4% 3.4% 0.8% 5.7% 1.6% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 38.1% 24.9% 18.3% 9.4% 23.9% 18.9% 14.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##