* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 46 52 61 67 68 73 74 78 80 81 81 81 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 46 52 61 67 68 71 71 41 32 29 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 42 46 51 56 61 66 71 41 32 29 35 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 16 16 20 12 9 5 11 15 20 18 14 8 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 5 8 0 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 13 8 21 22 7 355 333 350 17 9 357 13 348 3 26 75 120 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.4 29.4 29.8 30.5 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 161 155 153 145 147 151 160 159 166 171 159 151 154 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 159 161 155 153 145 147 151 160 155 160 171 147 134 139 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 13 13 12 14 12 12 9 9 8 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 48 46 44 46 52 59 62 71 76 80 77 79 79 80 80 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 13 13 14 11 13 13 11 12 10 10 9 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 54 65 64 61 65 66 69 73 46 41 18 34 30 38 58 72 200 MB DIV 8 29 40 16 0 -12 6 65 71 45 56 28 46 58 72 48 48 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -1 1 -1 3 -3 6 -5 -4 -2 3 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 382 283 286 306 347 227 229 360 311 30 59 0 -155 -22 -19 45 105 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.3 60.0 61.7 63.4 65.2 69.0 72.9 76.7 80.3 83.7 86.3 88.2 90.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 19 18 18 17 15 11 10 10 7 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 59 59 52 44 31 67 30 71 51 40 49 67 6 27 22 21 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 30. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -9. -8. -12. -12. -14. -14. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 17. 26. 32. 33. 38. 39. 43. 45. 46. 46. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 58.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.52 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.85 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.5% 9.5% 6.1% 5.5% 8.4% 11.5% 21.4% Logistic: 6.0% 14.9% 9.2% 2.5% 1.4% 6.3% 12.4% 23.5% Bayesian: 1.2% 5.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 7.9% 28.6% Consensus: 4.2% 12.0% 7.0% 2.9% 2.3% 5.5% 10.6% 24.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 40 46 52 61 67 68 71 71 41 32 29 32 33 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 44 50 59 65 66 69 69 39 30 27 30 31 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 39 45 54 60 61 64 64 34 25 22 25 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 32 38 47 53 54 57 57 27 18 15 18 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT