* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 86 82 74 60 44 35 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 86 82 74 60 44 35 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 86 81 70 53 42 37 35 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 27 35 39 47 64 72 58 41 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 4 10 13 -2 -6 -3 -4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 238 239 230 230 243 237 234 229 236 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.7 26.9 22.1 15.9 16.4 13.1 10.9 10.9 11.6 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 127 130 94 77 76 70 66 65 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 117 120 88 74 72 67 64 62 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.7 -53.0 -52.1 -50.9 -50.4 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -1.6 -1.4 -0.1 2.2 2.9 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 34 37 42 48 51 48 52 44 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 24 24 25 20 20 23 20 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 31 84 111 151 178 169 165 158 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 65 76 110 111 102 91 76 41 31 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -11 -1 11 -20 94 69 47 -10 -46 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 601 602 592 483 411 800 1173 1448 1342 1143 947 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 39.5 40.7 42.4 44.0 47.7 51.1 53.7 55.1 55.3 55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.1 60.7 57.3 53.4 49.5 42.1 37.1 33.8 30.7 27.6 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 29 31 33 32 27 20 14 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 7 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 26 CX,CY: 21/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -2. -5. -11. -20. -30. -40. -49. -55. -60. -63. -67. -68. -70. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -11. -21. -31. -37. -40. -37. -36. -40. -43. -48. -51. -54. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. -3. -4. -0. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -3. -11. -25. -41. -50. -53. -64. -73. -81. -86. -90. -93. -96.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 38.2 64.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 695.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 5( 23) 0( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 86 82 74 60 44 35 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 80 72 58 42 33 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 77 69 55 39 30 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 67 53 37 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 52 36 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 60 44 35 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 86 86 77 71 67 51 42 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS