* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 81 80 76 63 50 39 30 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 82 81 80 76 63 50 39 30 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 82 82 81 78 59 45 37 35 36 37 40 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 29 34 39 57 69 59 55 30 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 5 3 10 0 -4 -6 -2 -4 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 254 244 241 231 238 234 235 225 224 226 237 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 25.8 26.9 23.0 14.9 15.8 12.0 10.8 11.6 13.2 13.7 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 118 130 99 75 74 69 66 66 69 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 108 120 91 72 71 66 64 64 66 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.2 -51.4 -49.4 -48.9 -48.9 -48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 -0.1 4.3 4.2 3.5 3.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 40 36 37 42 52 52 53 56 50 47 47 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 24 25 24 21 18 19 25 22 19 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 4 33 78 152 161 197 189 186 162 133 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 74 59 75 115 102 105 86 66 50 30 6 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 5 -9 0 -5 53 74 88 42 -19 -26 -28 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 596 626 597 591 535 522 916 1280 1438 1220 893 514 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 38.0 39.1 40.5 41.9 45.4 49.0 52.4 54.5 55.4 56.3 57.2 58.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.1 64.3 61.4 57.8 54.2 46.6 40.5 35.9 32.1 28.8 23.4 15.9 8.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 25 28 31 32 30 25 19 13 13 19 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 21 CX,CY: 16/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. -2. -7. -15. -23. -32. -40. -46. -51. -55. -59. -60. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -30. -36. -35. -34. -36. -37. -42. -45. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -8. -1. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 0. -4. -17. -30. -41. -50. -50. -61. -72. -77. -82. -86. -90. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 36.8 67.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 685.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 11.3% 7.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 4.3% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 5( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 81 80 76 63 50 39 30 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 77 73 60 47 36 27 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 71 58 45 34 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 53 40 29 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT