* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 83 81 79 72 63 50 37 33 34 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 82 83 81 79 72 63 50 37 33 34 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 83 85 85 83 71 54 42 35 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 18 25 33 45 57 72 57 45 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 1 6 4 9 4 -8 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 296 264 246 243 229 236 233 234 225 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.2 25.6 26.9 19.0 13.8 13.6 10.9 10.3 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 131 116 129 83 73 71 66 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 119 106 119 78 70 68 64 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -51.7 -50.0 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -1.7 -1.4 -0.8 1.5 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 41 37 38 48 52 55 60 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 22 22 25 25 21 18 20 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -7 2 0 24 113 164 174 201 183 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 33 67 59 69 112 121 89 85 53 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 13 19 6 4 -12 60 71 59 15 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 564 624 627 604 605 409 635 1053 1370 1477 1338 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.5 37.6 38.9 40.1 43.3 47.1 51.0 53.7 55.1 56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.5 67.2 64.9 61.8 58.6 51.1 44.4 38.8 35.0 32.8 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 24 28 30 31 29 22 13 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 22 25 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 16 CX,CY: 11/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -21. -29. -38. -44. -47. -51. -54. -56. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -25. -32. -33. -33. -36. -40. -45. -48. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. -1. -6. -4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. -1. -8. -17. -30. -43. -47. -46. -54. -60. -66. -70. -73. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 35.4 69.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.27 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 686.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 11.0% 7.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 4.2% 3.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 5.1% 3.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 9( 15) 7( 21) 4( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 83 81 79 72 63 50 37 33 34 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 80 78 76 69 60 47 34 30 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 72 65 56 43 30 26 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 61 52 39 26 22 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 80 82 83 74 68 64 55 42 29 25 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS