* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 67 68 71 66 60 58 51 48 44 39 33 30 28 26 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 67 68 71 66 60 58 51 48 44 39 33 30 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 68 68 70 71 62 51 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 16 17 10 17 35 45 48 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 0 0 3 1 10 5 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 359 355 355 330 251 259 237 227 231 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 28.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 17.5 14.1 16.2 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 145 131 131 132 128 78 72 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 130 125 114 116 121 118 74 69 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 9 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 52 53 54 52 41 40 47 56 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 20 23 20 21 25 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -39 -27 -25 -19 -17 23 112 192 248 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 6 22 30 6 63 56 72 111 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 10 11 6 4 1 -16 -62 20 69 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 542 511 487 540 630 657 592 376 649 985 1364 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.2 33.1 34.2 35.2 37.7 40.7 44.0 47.2 50.2 53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.4 71.9 71.4 70.1 68.8 64.0 57.3 50.2 44.2 39.6 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 13 15 19 27 31 28 24 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 37 28 10 13 18 13 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -30. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -3. -3. 2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 1. -5. -7. -14. -17. -21. -26. -32. -35. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.3 72.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.3% 9.1% 7.2% 6.5% 8.0% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 7.4% 4.5% 4.0% 1.8% 4.8% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.0% 4.6% 3.8% 2.8% 4.3% 2.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 67 68 71 66 60 58 51 48 44 39 33 30 28 26 18HR AGO 65 64 65 65 66 69 64 58 56 49 46 42 37 31 28 26 24 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 62 65 60 54 52 45 42 38 33 27 24 22 20 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 59 54 48 46 39 36 32 27 21 18 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT