* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 21 18 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 21 18 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 22 18 15 13 12 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 77 84 85 82 85 104 147 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.8 25.4 25.8 26.5 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 122 118 122 117 121 129 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 60 58 54 52 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 65 65 57 54 49 49 48 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 9 5 -12 -14 -6 -9 -12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 2 2 3 2 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 845 955 1060 1148 1238 1435 1634 1835 2040 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.0 19.6 19.2 18.7 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.3 121.5 122.6 123.7 125.9 128.0 130.0 132.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. 22. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.5 119.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##