* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 53 56 60 61 71 75 71 59 55 51 48 46 46 44 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 53 56 60 61 71 75 71 59 55 51 48 46 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 56 59 61 67 71 61 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 15 16 14 15 15 8 15 36 49 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 3 8 0 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 357 15 16 360 360 350 246 241 244 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 27.9 28.2 27.0 23.9 16.7 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 154 155 155 137 143 129 103 77 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 132 132 133 120 127 116 94 73 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.4 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 12 10 9 7 5 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 50 52 53 57 53 47 45 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 13 19 21 21 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -39 -34 -30 -45 -30 -36 11 58 95 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 25 15 16 7 28 57 74 92 103 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 1 -17 3 18 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 826 741 660 601 555 571 681 644 633 514 908 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.4 30.2 31.1 32.0 34.0 36.3 38.6 41.1 43.7 46.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.9 72.0 71.8 71.5 69.8 66.2 61.4 55.3 48.1 41.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 15 20 25 28 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 24 26 32 39 17 29 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. -4. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 7. 9. 9. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 21. 31. 35. 31. 19. 15. 11. 8. 6. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.5 71.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.58 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.7% 10.1% 7.3% 6.3% 8.9% 11.3% 10.6% Logistic: 6.4% 16.0% 12.6% 9.3% 2.5% 10.4% 9.8% 1.7% Bayesian: 6.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 10.8% 7.9% 5.6% 2.9% 6.5% 7.1% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/14/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 49 53 56 60 61 71 75 71 59 55 51 48 46 46 44 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 50 54 55 65 69 65 53 49 45 42 40 40 38 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 43 47 48 58 62 58 46 42 38 35 33 33 31 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 37 38 48 52 48 36 32 28 25 23 23 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT