* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082017 08/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 48 52 54 59 69 68 65 57 49 37 36 35 33 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 48 52 54 59 69 68 65 57 49 37 36 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 43 46 49 50 54 61 62 56 50 44 42 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 16 17 15 16 14 9 18 40 43 45 43 70 50 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -3 2 11 -1 6 12 9 6 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 17 8 20 28 6 12 270 252 254 237 231 229 225 207 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 24.3 23.6 18.8 16.5 12.2 11.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 154 155 145 132 134 135 105 101 81 75 69 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 135 132 132 125 116 119 121 95 91 76 70 66 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -51.2 -49.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 0.0 3.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 12 11 9 8 7 4 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 48 51 53 56 57 52 45 44 38 42 42 62 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 15 15 16 15 14 15 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -34 -39 -33 -34 -51 -21 -11 29 56 68 65 45 165 215 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 17 16 16 14 -4 50 27 104 67 86 98 86 80 67 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 1 -1 -3 33 41 33 75 43 24 -62 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 840 814 717 647 583 526 692 691 682 616 720 1130 1587 1384 1220 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.6 29.5 30.4 31.2 33.1 35.3 37.4 39.4 41.2 43.2 45.4 47.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.9 72.1 72.0 71.9 70.9 68.1 63.9 58.5 52.1 45.4 38.4 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 13 18 22 25 26 27 27 22 19 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 25 24 27 33 28 14 18 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. -1. -7. -13. -21. -34. -43. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 4. 2. 3. 1. -1. -1. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 17. 19. 24. 34. 33. 30. 22. 14. 2. 1. -0. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.7 71.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.7% 9.5% 6.9% 6.0% 8.5% 9.5% 11.1% Logistic: 8.1% 22.7% 19.9% 17.4% 5.7% 15.4% 13.8% 4.7% Bayesian: 2.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 13.0% 10.2% 8.1% 3.9% 8.1% 7.9% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 46 48 52 54 59 69 68 65 57 49 37 36 35 33 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 43 47 49 54 64 63 60 52 44 32 31 30 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 41 43 48 58 57 54 46 38 26 25 24 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 33 38 48 47 44 36 28 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT