* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082017 08/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 41 44 48 52 53 51 47 40 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 41 44 48 52 53 51 47 40 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 38 41 44 43 41 38 33 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 18 17 17 20 9 31 47 55 64 64 78 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 -5 1 3 1 4 0 5 1 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 30 15 9 17 3 356 288 261 251 247 245 238 225 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 27.5 28.1 27.3 23.3 17.8 19.3 16.7 14.3 16.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 154 154 149 132 142 133 99 79 82 73 69 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 134 132 131 127 115 125 120 90 74 76 69 65 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.7 -51.4 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 48 51 54 59 59 51 46 45 50 52 55 57 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 9 11 14 17 15 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -36 -31 -36 -34 -32 -22 -20 -4 40 52 88 45 180 78 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 23 14 15 5 19 12 48 21 86 73 83 102 80 67 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 0 0 -1 1 -8 4 0 50 63 34 48 -58 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 815 837 745 664 588 507 594 641 627 591 564 985 1476 1443 1132 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.2 29.2 30.1 30.9 32.7 34.7 36.9 39.1 41.4 43.6 45.5 47.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.3 71.7 72.1 72.1 72.2 71.5 69.3 65.8 60.8 54.3 47.4 40.3 33.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 11 16 20 25 27 27 27 17 13 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 27 24 25 29 32 12 31 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. 19. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -4. -13. -23. -34. -50. -59. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. 3. 5. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 23. 21. 17. 10. -8. -17. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.2 71.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.58 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 10.1% 6.8% 4.8% 3.9% 6.7% 7.2% 8.7% Logistic: 1.9% 7.7% 5.2% 3.3% 0.9% 3.7% 5.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.9% 4.0% 2.7% 1.6% 3.5% 4.2% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 38 41 44 48 52 53 51 47 40 22 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 38 41 45 49 50 48 44 37 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 37 41 45 46 44 40 33 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 29 33 37 38 36 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT