* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082017 08/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 38 41 42 46 52 55 50 40 31 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 38 41 42 46 52 55 50 40 31 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 36 38 41 41 42 45 48 46 41 37 34 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 10 13 14 18 19 23 15 21 40 61 69 70 58 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -3 3 4 -5 5 3 7 20 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 23 35 21 21 27 14 20 272 257 255 242 245 224 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.4 27.4 27.5 27.2 20.0 19.8 17.6 16.8 16.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 155 156 155 143 132 135 132 85 84 76 72 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 137 135 133 132 123 116 121 120 79 79 71 66 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -54.5 -52.6 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 5 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 48 48 51 55 58 58 51 46 50 50 54 52 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 9 9 10 11 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -59 -38 -36 -44 -28 -51 -30 -22 3 41 66 52 126 134 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 9 16 0 14 31 -15 39 11 75 74 74 85 84 86 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 1 -2 3 0 15 28 38 45 63 95 78 -17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 679 794 834 779 680 567 554 701 671 625 504 811 1321 1493 1427 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 27.0 28.0 29.0 29.9 31.5 33.3 35.3 37.6 40.2 42.5 44.6 46.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.6 71.1 71.7 71.9 72.1 71.8 70.4 68.0 63.8 57.7 50.7 43.1 35.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 12 17 24 28 29 29 19 11 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 32 29 24 25 36 27 15 16 18 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 24. 23. 21. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -12. -23. -35. -48. -56. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -5. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 22. 25. 20. 10. 1. -10. -16. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.9 70.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.5% 8.4% 5.9% 4.9% 7.5% 8.3% 9.8% Logistic: 3.5% 19.4% 13.1% 9.0% 3.6% 12.5% 11.6% 14.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.8% 7.2% 5.0% 2.8% 6.7% 6.7% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 36 38 41 42 46 52 55 50 40 31 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 37 38 42 48 51 46 36 27 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 32 33 37 43 46 41 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 26 30 36 39 34 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT